The situation in the global financial markets is currently very difficult. Economists even predict an imminent transition to a recession, ie a fall in production and a slowdown in economic growth. It will no doubt affect all of us regardless of which country we live in, but the greatest sense of insecurity is likely to be felt by those who own bitcoins. Why?
Bitcoin has lost value. If only because we haven’t seen a global recession or major economic crisis since the advent of cryptocurrencies. The emergence of bitcoin happened as a sort of response to the global financial crisis in 2008. The inventor of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto (or a group of inventors), heralded the cryptocurrency itself as salvation from banks and centralized financial institutions. So what would happen to Bitcoin in the event of a new global economic recession? There are a few considerations for this.
But first, we should explain what a recession is. We probably all remember the global financial crisis of 2008, but what is a recession, and what triggers it? There are many different factors that can cause a recession: political instability, climate change, war – the list goes on. However, a recession is a temporary economic slowdown (the key word here is “temporary”) characterized by a two-quarter decline in GDP.
How Could a Recession Affect Bitcoin?
There are two possible scenarios here: either Bitcoin thrives or it takes a big hit. What will actually happen is at least very difficult or impossible to guess. However, the answer is imperative for those who invest in Bitcoins.
Imagine the scenario of Bitcoin thriving during an economic recession. Stagnant financial markets may increase Bitcoin acceptance. In countries with high inflation like Venezuela and Zimbabwe, Bitcoin is already trading at a premium of 40 percent. High inflation rates make investments less valuable and less stable, which discourages investors. Although bitcoin is influenced in some ways by global markets, it has been called the digital equivalent of gold. This makes this cryptocurrency a financially safe investment.
During a global recession, inflation – that is, the general level of prices – will naturally rise. Because of this, investing in traditional fiat instruments will become more expensive and less stable. This could very well work out in Bitcoin’s favor as more and more people will consider shifting their investments to cryptocurrencies and start trading cryptocurrencies on such trading platforms as bitcoin motion.
After all, even people far from the cryptocurrency industry have heard about Bitcoin’s marvelous profitability. All of this is fueled by sometimes crazy celebrity predictions, among other things.
On the other hand, a recession could result in the US dollar further consolidating its status as a world currency. In a recession, 99 percent of businesses are forced to cut costs and focus on survival. Job and wage cuts will further exacerbate the situation, and most middle-class people will need fiat savings to survive, not to spend on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. It is likely that many Bitcoin traders will even start selling their cryptocurrencies. This will subsequently lead to an increase in supply and consequently a fall in exchange rates.
So although Bitcoin was invented to save itself from the collapse of the economy, its history is not that long. Right now, it’s less than half the lifespan of an average fiat currency. So far it is impossible to predict how Bitcoin will behave in the next world crisis or recession – however, we have written down the possible scenarios. Anyway, the largest cryptocurrency still has a long way to go.